Prediction Models Used to Determine Football Scores Beforehand


Many people consider that betting on the scores of football matches comes down to much about luck and chance and that there are no proper or scientific ways to determine the score of a match accurately which would enable you to wager on the biggest odds. However, that is not the truth and all you need to do to become a successful better of football matches is take a look at the business of sports betting that is thriving all over the world. Without having a proper method of predicting games, book makers, would in no way hold the upper hand over the ones who bet their money on the score of a football match. The rating system and the ranking system – at this time, these are the two systems that are used to calculate the chances of a particular team in a game.

The Rating System

Unlike the ranking system that determines the chances of a team for success, the rating system takes into account various indicators and scales the value of each individual player on the team based on their skill. Moreover, this system also allows the book keeper to determine separately to rate the capabilities in attack as well as defense of a team and also takes into account the benefits of applying in front of the home crowd. The first time this kind of system was put to use was way back in 1956, when Moroney devised the method using the Poisson Distribution system and the Negative Binomial system. Benjamin and Reep refined the system 14 years later when they took into account the skill of passing as an important attribute of the equation. However, it was only in the 1990s when this system was mentioned for the very first time in a publication on betting.

The Ranking System

This system determines the rank of a particular team based on the results and performances of the team in the previous matches as opposed to that of their opponents. Each team is awarded points in this system based on their performances over a certain period of time and the team which has performed most consistently over a certain period of time is awarded the highest position in the hierarchy. Currently, there are 8 different systems that are used to determine the rank of a particular team. However, it has to be mentioned that when compared to the rating system, this system is flawed. For example, this system does not allow the scope to take into account the individual abilities of the players in the team. Moreover, it also doesn’t allow the chance to determine the ability of a team, be it in attack or in defense.

To conclude, it can be said that if a proper statistical approach is taken, the score of a match can be predicted correctly to a certain extent. Although none of these systems can pin point the score of a match with 100% accuracy, the model helps to reduce the losses to a greater extent.

 

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